Evaluating Precipitation Errors Using the Environmentally Conditioned Intensity‐Frequency Decomposition Method

A fundamental issue when evaluating the simulation of precipitation is difficulty quantifying specific sources errors and recognizing compensation errors. We assess how well a large ensemble high-resolution simulations represents associated with strong cyclones. propose framework to breakdown according different dynamical (vertical velocity) thermodynamical (vertically integrated water vapor) regimes frequency intensity precipitation. This approach approximates error in total each regime as sum three terms describing large-scale environmental conditions, its intensity. show that produce too often, weak, are larger for weak than forcing biases vertically vapor can be large. Using presented above, we define four new metrics differing on degree which they include convection-permitting consistently improve compared coarser-resolution using parameterized convection, these improvements revealed by our but not traditional affected compensating These results suggest models more likely better right reasons. conclude novel decomposition this study give useful provides physical insights about reliable quantification